Electricity: Ukraine and Europe December 2 – 6, 2024
Ukrainian Energy Exchange: Bilateral contracts market
Last week, the UEEX held 14 auctions for the purchase/sale of electricity in the unilateral auction mode, including 4 in commercial sections and 10 in specialized sections. Among the initiators were: Energoatom-Trading, Ukrhydroenergo, Centrenergo, Shamrai sugar, USPs and DSOs, etc.
Energoatom-Trading initiated the auctions, which resulted in the sale of 972 000 MWh of baseload at a weighted average price of UAH 5190,23/MWh with a delivery period of December.
Ukrhydroenergo initiated auctions where it offered baseload power with different delivery periods for December. According to the results of the auctions, the company sold 109176 MWh of baseload at prices in the range of 5316,78 - 5620,38 UAH/MWh with a delivery period in December.
In addition, in the specialized section last week, Shamrai sugar initiated auctions offering base load for delivery from December 11 to 18. The company sold 192 MWh at a weighted average price of 5352 UAH/MWh.
During the reporting period, Centrenergo initiated auctions offering baseload and block positions with different delivery periods for December and January. According to the results of the auction, the company was unable to sell the offered volume.
| Trades type | Sales volume, MWh |
|---|---|
| Auctions pursuant to Article 66 of the Law of Ukraine On Electricity Market | 1 081 368 |
| Commercial section | 42 008,854 |
| In total | 1 123 376,854 |
As of December 6, prices for the most commonly used types of sales schedules were formed, as shown in the chart.
Market operator: day-ahead and intraday markets
During the reporting period, the DAM prices were volatile, ranging from 4641,24 to 6527,48 UAH/MWh. In general, the average weighted average price for the last week increased by 19% compared to the same indicator of the previous week and amounted to 6145,81 UAH/MWh. The highest daily price was 6527,48 UAH/MWh on December 6, and the lowest was 4641,24 UAH/MWh on November 30. The volume of sales for the reporting period from November 30 to December 6 amounted to 619,92 thousand MWh (-5,1%).
During the reporting period, prices on the IDM were less volatile compared to the previous week. The weighted average prices varied in the range of 4652,16 - 6728,29 UAH/MWh, and the average value of the weighted average prices for the reporting period increased by 17% compared to the same period last year and amounted to 5933,46 UAH/MWh. The total volume of purchases and sales for the reporting period amounted to 81,85 thousand MWh.
European market
Prices in major European markets declined in the middle of the week, driven by warming and a lack of growth factors in the market.
European spot electricity prices were volatile on Thursday due to improved renewable generation. The German spot price for electricity fell by 20% to 86,37 EUR/MWh. Similarly, the French day-ahead contract fell by 19% to 87,28 EUR/MWh.
Electricity generation from wind turbines in Europe in the first four days of last week averaged 17,3% of the region’s needs, according to the WindEurope Association. The largest volumes were generated by Germany and Spain.
Solar power generation in Europe for the first four days of last week totaled about 950 GWh. The average solar power generation capacity in Europe for the first week of December decreased to 9,5 GW.
Demand for electricity last week increased in European electricity markets compared to the previous week, but in the Netherlands and Spain, demand decreased compared to the previous week. The Spanish market has a national holiday on Friday, December 6. The Spanish Constitution Day contributed to a decline in weekly demand. Italian demand grew for the fifth week in a row. In the first four days of last week, the average European demand was at 359 GW.
As of December 6, the price of basic electricity in France amounted to EUR 87,28 /MWh, in Hungary: 156,25 EUR/MWh; in Poland: 108,40 EUR/MWh.
Monthly February 2025 electricity futures were up 5,4% in France and down an average of 3% in Hungary and Poland; March 2025 futures were down an average of 20% in the above countries.
The Cal’25 forward electricity price declined last Thursday, following bearish gas prices. The German Cal’25 price for electricity fell by 1% to 95,24 EUR/MWh. The French Cal’25 price for electricity fell by 0,2% to 75,25 EUR/MWh.
Futures contract prices, EUR/MWh, 05.12.2024
| Type | Contract | Date | France | Hungary | Poland |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Моnth | Jan/25 | 102,12 | 140,45 | 109,02 |
| Feb/25 | 107,64 | 137,32 | 103,96 | ||
| Mar/25 | 83,14 | 100,97 | 91,43 |
Carbon prices in the EU declined last Thursday, following the dynamics of M+1 natural gas prices, as both markets saw shorter delivery times amid “weak” trading over the past few days. The EUA Dec-2024 contract settled at EUR 67,34 per ton on December 5. The price of EU carbon permits traded at EUR 67,41 per ton on December 6. Cooler weather combined with subdued wind generation supported EUA prices.
On December 5, the spot price of thermal coal in Europe (API-2) amounted to EUR 108,68 per ton. The thermal coal market remained stable last week, with limited availability of cargo and expectations of increased winter demand keeping prices at their highest level. Lower demand from China amid high inventories is holding back price growth.
Last week, Ukraine received imports from Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, Poland, and Moldova. There were no exports.
Public procurements
Over 200 electricity procurement tenders were held last week. Sold volume of the 10 largest contracts amounted to 38,69 million kWh for a total value of UAH 222,49 million excluding VAT. The average price amounted to UAH 5,71 per kWh, excluding VAT. The largest contract was awarded to Energy Trade Hub LLC, which will supply 12 million kWh of electricity to the Zhytomyr Tram and Trolleybus Department of the ZhMR at a starting price of UAH 5,58 per kWh, excluding VAT. Other tenders are shown in the graph below. Prices ranged from UAH 4,65 to UAH 6,21 per kWh.
News from the wholesale electricity market
Turkey plans to increase “green” energy capacity in four times.
Turkey intends to increase its energy exports to Europe by increasing the capacity of “green” energy in four times. This was stated by the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources of Turkey Alparslan Bayraktar, Ukrinform reports citing TRT Haber. “Turkey has climate and transformation goals (in the energy sector - ed.), the industry should be ready to increase exports to Europe. Turkey plans to increase the capacity of its wind and solar energy from 30 to 120 gigawatts,” Bayraktar said.
Next week, the Regulator plans to approve the electricity transmission tariff for 2025.
Next week, NEURC plans to set the electricity transmission tariff for 2025 at UAH 678,58/MWh (except for renewable energy companies), which is 28% higher than the transmission tariff for 2024. The relevant draft decision will be considered at a meeting on December 10. The electricity transmission tariff for renewable energy companies is planned to be set at UAH 351,90/MWh. As stated in the rationale for the draft resolution, the item “Expenses for special obligations to ensure an increase in the share of electricity production from alternative sources other than private households” takes into account the updated projected volume of electricity supplied by “green” producers under the feed-in premium mechanism. The tariff for dispatch management services is planned to be set at 92,26 UAH /MWh. The Regulator also plans to adopt electricity distribution tariffs for distribution system operators.
